Lockdowns — A Failed Experiment?
Have lockdowns in the US have been a failure? Compelling evidence seems to point towards this. Although one could possibly intuit at the inception of COVID that lockdowns made sense, intuition has little resemblance to science. There had never been any real-world scientific studies that would validate the effectiveness of lockdowns. Science is the process of observation, documentation, codification, and conclusion. The “follow the science” logic had no science to follow!
Many states with the most stringent lockdowns have had dramatically worse outcomes than Florida, which took a less draconian but highly targeted approach. Florida’s governor abandoned lockdowns early, keeping schools and businesses open. Mask wearing was advised and encouraged, but not legally mandated. I have been here for four months and I see 100% compliance indoors and a high level of compliance outdoors, especially in close quarters. Florida’s response aggressively focused on protecting the most vulnerable segment of the population, the elderly and infirm. Although several counties resisted the governor’s “no lockdown” policy, Florida’s level of freedom was robust in comparison to the societal prison that many of the Northeastern states had become. I felt trapped there. My life here in Florida has been more like its normal state.
There are irrefutable facts.
NJ — 79.0% higher than FL
RI — 60.4% higher
MA — 60.0% higher
CT — 44.4% higher
NY — 11.0% higher
Additionally, despite having the highest percentage of elderly in the country, Florida had a lower percentage of deaths per 1,000 long term care residents than all of the aforementioned locked-down states!
According to Newsweek (3/19/21), ten of the best fifty hospitals in America are in the Northeastern states. Only one Florida hospital is ranked in the top Fifty! There can be no debate that the hospitals in Florida are not of the same quality as those in the Northeastern states. This makes Florida’s “no lockdown — target the most vulnerable” outcome, even more impressive.
What had been both empirically and scientifically evident in the early going, is that approximately 80% of COVID deaths are persons over the age of 65 with one or more active comorbidities (heart disease, cancer, diabetes, renal failure, COPD, etc.) As early as May 1, 2020 it was known that patients who reported no comorbid medical conditions had a case fatality rate of under 1%. In August of 2020, the CDC itself reported that 94% of all Americas who died from COVID had “contributing health conditions.” Even in a non-COVID scenario, this age and health segment is at significantly higher risk of death in any given time frame. Florida’s comprehensive protection approach focused aggressively on this demographic.
I have been a proponent of the “Great Barrington Declaration” since day one. If you are not familiar with this treatise, I implore you to examine it. According to the Great Barrington Declaration’s website, this treatise has the backing of 50,000 physicians, scientists, and medical and public health professionals across the globe. Although controversial, it has proven to be an insightful and visionary protocol that would have, in my opinion, served America far better than the knee-jerk precipitous approach taken. Its basic premise is that lockdowns have no scientific basis and should not be implemented. “Keeping these measures (lockdowns) in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.” That is exactly what happened and continues to happen. What we now must deal with and may continue to deal with for years, are increased levels of crime, homelessness, suicide, divorce, alcohol abuse, drug abuse, child abuse, spousal abuse, depression, financial ruin, business failures, mental and physical illness, and record unemployment. Additionally, we have stunted the education of our youth, and have caused suffering to those unable to access adequate medical services. This is what lockdowns hath wrought. An MIT study in April 2016 determined that unemployment and poverty leads to shorter life spans of 10 to 15 years (synopsis)
Early supporters of lockdowns vehemently insisted that saving even a few lives would be worth the damage and human devastation that widespread business, event, school, and house of worship closures would produce. In a perfect world this myopic view is all lollipops and teddy bears. As a practical matter however, for 335 million citizens, warm milk and cookies logic doesn’t wash.
Was the lockdown mania politically motived? Did herd mentality take over? Did the herd stampede? As increasing data from the CDC and Johns Hopkins indicated that lockdowns were ineffective, officials doubled down. If taking two aspirins doesn’t cure a headache, take four! No success? Take eight! Nobody wants egg on their face, especially politicians. Now they have the whole omelet dripping off of them.
Florida’s Governor got it right. He implemented a focused protection approach for those “at risk” as encouraged by The Great Barrington Declaration, after initial lockdowns failed to prove effective. He understood that with no concrete evidence to support a blanket action of great harshness and consequence, the “let’s wait and see” policy made sense. Despite enormous political pressure and resistance, he showed a committed level of leadership and stayed the course.
The results speak volumes. In comparison to the above referenced states with severe lockdowns, Florida’s unemployment rates are low, its housing market is robust (lockdowns drove people out of the Northeast), the economy remains vibrant, and children’s education has progressed in a relatively normal fashion. Let’s give Governor DeSantis credit. While other governors approached the problem with a cannon, Governor DeSantis used a pin. The canon left massive hole in society. The pin turned out to be the bloodless solution.
Have lockdowns been an abysmal failure? Any theories to explain these outcomes? I deal in facts reader, and whether you like them or not, facts don’t care. Facts have no feelings. What are your thoughts? Anecdotal information, opinions from Uncle Teddy, and anything from Fakebook will be summarily rejected.
Howard Axelrod is a resident of Ashland, Massachusetts and Delray Beach, Florida, travel photographer, writer, and former high technology executive. He has photographed in 85 countries on six continents.
